"Democratic primary between Bristol County District Attorney Paul F. Walsh Jr.
and challenger Samuel Sutter — could reinforce turnout"
Turnout is key in primary
Low number could benefit Patrick, Reilly
By David Kibbe, Standard-Times staff writer
BOSTON — Predictions of a low turnout in Tuesday's Democratic primary for governor are expected to help the front runner, Deval Patrick, and Attorney General Thomas Reilly, who has been trailing in the polls.
Secretary of State William F. Galvin believes this year's Democratic gubernatorial primary could draw less than 20 percent of registered voters.
Patrick, who won the endorsement of the state Democratic convention in June, has energized activists in the party's base and has built up strong local organizations across the state, political experts said.
Reilly, who won the early support of the much of the party's establishment in the state Legislature and at city halls across the state, also stands to gain from low turnout.
But political observers say a higher number of voters would bolster the chances of venture capitalist Christopher Gabrieli, who entered the race late and is appealing to independent voters. Many of them are registered as "unenrolled," meaning they did not join a political party but are eligible to vote in the primary.
Based on early enrollment figures and requests for absentee ballots, Galvin recently predicted a turnout of about 620,000 voters for the Democratic primary, less than 20 percent of registered Democratic and unenrolled voters. Unenrolled voters make up nearly half of the state's voters. Together, Democrats and unenrolled voters make up about 85 percent of the electorate.
When the Democrats had a four-way race for governor in 2002, coupled with a Republican primary for lieutenant governor, the primaries drew about 26 percent of registered voters.
Galvin was seeing less interest in this year's primary, though he cautioned it could change.
"I'm hoping I'm wrong," Galvin said in an interview. "I'm hoping those numbers will go up. I think there is a chance, with the lateness of the primary."
Galvin said several hotly contested regional races across the state — including a Democratic primary between Bristol County District Attorney Paul F. Walsh Jr. and challenger Samuel Sutter — could reinforce turnout.
But there is little else to grab voters' attention. There is a three-way Democratic primary for lieutenant governor between Worcester Mayor Tim Murray, Andrea Silbert, a Harwich businesswoman, and Deb Goldberg, a former Brookline selectwoman.
Galvin is being challenged by John Bonifaz in the Democratic primary.
"I am not very exciting, and my opponent is less exciting," Galvin said.
Galvin said primary day turnout statistics are somewhat misleading, because the state counts voters who register as unenrolled, even though many of them choose to vote only in the general election.
The turnout for the 2002 general election was nearly 56 percent, when Gov. Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Shannon O'Brien.
But the overall number of Democratic primary voters has been slipping in recent decades, especially in non-presidential years. The 1982 Democratic primary, which featured a rematch between Michael Dukakis and Edward King, who unseated him as governor four years earlier, drew 1.4 million voters, while the 2002 primaries had slightly more than one million voters.
Dr. Clyde W. Barrow, the director of the Center for Policy Analysis at UMass Dartmouth, said Galvin's 20 percent prediction "doesn't seem that far off" given the trend for primaries in a non-presidential election year.
If this year's Democratic primary does draw as few as 620,000 voters, it will help Patrick and Reilly, Barrow predicted.
"Low turnout likely benefits both Reilly and Deval Patrick, and that's because when you have low turnout that means it is party activists that are showing up, and both of them represent the moderate and liberal wings of the Democratic Party, so they have their party organizations turning out their supporters," he said.
Jeffrey Berry, a Tufts University political science professor, believed a low turnout would benefit Patrick because studies have shown that highly educated residents are more likely to vote, a group that Patrick polls strongly with in Massachusetts.
"They will turn out and vote, and he has always put the most emphasis on building a field organization," Berry said.
A surprisingly high turnout could be good news for Gabrieli, who has been advertising heavily on TV.
"If there is a high turnout, my guess is Chris Gabrieli's chances improve markedly, in that his votes are the softest," Berry said. "So there's a higher turnout by people who are wavering, and Gabrieli may be attractive to them because of his TV commercials."
Date of Publication: September 17, 2006 on Page A01
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